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TNA Australia Financial Analysis

Executive Summary

TNA is an Australian firm that is considering the viability in investing in a Vietnamese company with a proposed $A 10 million investment. It has an alternate investment proposal of $A 7 million. After finding the sources of funding in the form of debt, equity and internal funding alternatives, the paper used the capital budgeting techniques to find out the viability of the proposed investments. It was found out that the investment of $A 10 million is a loss-making proposal and is not viable, while the investment of $A 7 million investment is viable as it makes profits.

Introduction

TNA is a company based out of Australia that is considering to invest in a company based out of Vietnam. TNA has been perceiving it to be advantageous to invest in the Vietnamese company because of its strategic location and an enterprising workforce. However, there is uncertainty shrouded regarding sources of funds and the profitability in the proposed investment. The paper delves into the sources of funds. The capital budgeting techniques and the financial estimations are provided in the paper in evaluating the proposed investment with a conclusion on the financial viability.

Sources of the $ 10 million required Capital

The problem TNA may face in searching the sources of the fund that includes family and friends, equity investors, banks, or government sources; is that these sources will ask for collaterals in order to supply money. In that case TNA has to offer collaterals such as, assets in the form of investments, valuable collections, vehicles, equity in real estate and savings accounts.

In mid 2000s, in a variety of industries, including food processing and packaging industry, the prices started a sustained and sharp increase as fallout of rapid urbanization and industrialization of the emerging economies, such as Vietnam (Holloway, Roberts and Rush 2010). The global supplies have not been able to match the demand growth that was largely unanticipated. As a result of that, the prices of commodities reached exponential levels. The consequent impact in Australia has been the rise of value and profitability of its resources (Berges 2004).

Sources and uses of funds

The sources of funding for TNA emanates from internal funds, whereas the debt fund is another source, although at a lesser extent. The resource boom led the Australian companies raising no equity in net terms, although it should not be forgotten that the Australian companies had been raising considerable amounts of equity by strengthening the balance sheet in 2009. 

The TNA is considering acquisition that requires a large amount relative to the TNA’s balance sheet and requiring large one-off payments. The acquisitions, like the one involving TNA, represent assets transfer and not generating new physical investment or economic activity. In this sort activity, the sources of funds can be syndicated loans. The other sources of funds might be insufficient or taking too long, time to arrange (Debelle 2010).

Internal funding

The TNA’s internal funding mostly come from operating cash flows and not from the draw down of the accumulated cash balances. However, it should be noted that an increase in operating costs can contribute to the decrease in the company’s profitability. The TNA should make use of more of external resources for making up the shortfall.

External funding

TNA should source funds from the external funds in financing the project in Vietnam. When talking about external funds, it should be mostly from the debt. The debt funding has to be raised from the bond markets and not from the banks. The bonds are preferred to the intermediate debt in the physical investments because of the long tenors available in the bond market. This is in matching to the TNA’s long horizons of investment. The weighted average tenor with respect to the issuance of bonds, Australian and foreign companies has been there for nine years since 2003.  This tenor is far more than the tenor given by the syndicate loans with a tenor of four years. The bond is also preferred over bank loans that a large company, such as TNA can be able to borrow more cheaply from the bond market than from the banks. The worldwide financial meltdown has been causing investors like TNA in reevaluating the risks related to lending to banks in terms of evidences in the pricing of the credit default swaps (CDS) (Gupta 2007).    

The scenario in the Australian business is characterized by the resource investments being a major contributor with respect to the growth of the economy in the recent past. This very fact explains the lower intermediate business lending contradictory to the expectation given the reasonable growth of the economy. 

The issuance of bonds has been carried out in a range of currencies for a large number of domiciles, including Vietnamese Dong, involving the Australian resource boom. Nevertheless, almost all issuances related to the Australian resourceful companies has the denomination of US Dollar.

This is reflective of the worldwide trends that represents investments usually in the US dollar. The market of the US dollar bond with respect to its depth has been the most liquid and the largest bond market in the world (Jain & Khan 2005).

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TNA should consider very little of its physical investment being funded by external equity. The Australian companies have not raised any equity on average since 2003. There has been a higher propensity in investing cash flows in physical investment compared to the nonrecourse companies. The Australian resource companies like TNA have generated cash flow payout ratio that is measurable as dividend plus buybacks relative to the operations of cash flows. The Australian resource companies, like TNA, have been issuing equity to the tune of $25 billion net. However, most of the equity has been issued to reduce debt levels.

The equity funding that is low and the return on capital to the shareholders have been reflecting the high percentage of highly profitable companies based out of Australia that makes up the industry. However, in case of smaller companies without having established operations have a retort to engage themselves in the exploration activities. These companies have been producing very little internal funding (Williams 2012). However, under the assumption that TNA is a large company, it has access to the debt financing with lower risk with respect to the lacking of cash flow and debt servicing.  

TNA must be cautious about the gearing of the sector that can be low. This is because it is especially true, if the TNA funds mostly from the internal sources. This is also significant as the Australian resource sector had reached rock bottom at 24 percent in 2010. This figure has risen on the strength of being physically invested the funds with the issuance of bonds. The reason of the low book value gearing ratio is the generating of internal funds in excess of the requirement of physical investment and thus having little reason to raising debt (Rayner and Bishop 2013).

 

Australian entities

Foreign entities

All entities

(a) Numbers may not add up exactly due to rounding 
Sources: ABS; Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences; Bloomberg; Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics;Dealogic; Deloitte Access Economics; Morningstar; RBA; company reports

Listed companies

49

43

93

Of which:

Internal funding

40

40

79

– Current operations

38

39

77

– Existing cash

1

1

2

Debt funding

9

4

12

– Bonds

6

3

8

– Loans

3

1

4

Equity funding

1

0

1

Private companies

3

1

3

Government entities

1

2

4

Total

54

46

100

Table: Funding of the Australian Resources Investment Boom(a)Per cent of total

The external funding, such as, new debt and equity has financed only a little over 10 percent of the Australian resource boom. Most of the external funding emanates from the debt, especially from the bond markets. The role of the banks has been very limited to, fund resource investment. The TNA’s possible raisings of the equity has been aimed to strengthen the balance sheets after the acquisition made of large debt funds rather than new physical investment fundings (Debelle 2011).  

TNA can consider sourcing funds extensively from the overseas. This is a genuine option for TNA as almost half of the physical investment by the Australian companies have been funded from the foreign countries. The foreign countries is meant by foreign based entities. Nonetheless, genuine usage of the foreign fund sources has been much higher than that. That is because the TNA has the option of raising primarily through debt funding by the issuance of bonds in the overseas market, especially the United States.  

If TNA has partial foreign ownership, even the internal sources funding can be termed as the equivalent to the foreign sources partial funding. There is every chance that TNA is partially foreign owned as three-quarters of the Australian listed resource sector is owned by the foreign entities. These factors points towards sourcing of physical investments from the offshore to the tune of being around four-fifth of the funding (Somanath 2011).  

Capital Budgeting Evaluation

Determination of Exchange rates

The two countries viz. Australia and Vietnam when considered in terms of exchange rates between the currencies is being determined by the differential between the countries. As a rule of thumb, the country having the lower inflation rate shows a value representing higher currency than the country represented by a higher rate of inflation whose value of currency tend exhibiting relative depreciation with respect to the value (Somanath 2011). It is very important that there is a direct proportion between exchange rate and the differential inflation rate. In the case of this paper, the differential inflation between Australia and Vietnam has been fluctuating at the rates gives as 4%, 3%, 3%, 2%, and 2% in the years 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. The current exchange rate is 19.74 Vietnamese Dong (VD) per Australian Dollar ($A) is likely to be increasing, according to the differential inflation rate increase in the years provided. Therefore, the exchange rates will be figured out at 20.53, 20.33, 20.33, 20.13 and 20.13 Vietnamese Dong per Australian Dollar representing the years of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively rounded to two decimal places.

Calculating Annual Exchange Rates Considering Differential Inflation

Year

Currently

1

2

3

4

5

Differential Equation

Not given

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

Exchange rate

19.74

20.53

20.33

20.33

20.13

20.13

Determination of Annual Revenue and Net Income

The Vietnamese firm generates revenue of $A 200,000 per month. This means it has an annual revenue of $A 2,400,000. By considering the current exchange rate of 19.74, makes it to VD 47,376,000. The revenue growth estimated is 20%, 30%, 30%, 20% and 10% in years 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. The use of the exchange rate with regards to the respective years, the revenue estimated is calculated as VD 59,122,253, 76,119,900, 98,955,871, 117,594,161 and 129,353,577 in years 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.

Calculating Annual Revenue in VD Considering Estimated Revenue Growth Rates

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

June, 2014 (Current)

June, 2015

June, 2016

June, 2017

June, 2018

June, 2019

Revenue Growth Rate

 

0%

20%

30%

30%

20%

10%

Actual Revenue A$

 

2,400,000

2,880,000

3,744,000

4,867,200

5,840,640

6,424,704

Revenue inVD

 

47,376,000

59,122,253

76,119,900

98,955,871

117,594,161

129,353,577

Under the assumption that the date of investment is July 1, 2014, the first year terminates on June 30, 2015. Similarly, the second year terminates on June 30, 2016 and it continues the same way till June 30, 2019 that represents the fifth year. The estimated costs are 60% of the first year, and 50% for the rest of the year. The deduction of the costs is made to calculate the net profit as VD 23,648,901, 38,059,950, 49,477,935, 58,797,080 and 64,676,788 in years 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.

Calculating Annual Profits

End of Year

 

1

2

3

4

5

 

June, 2015

 

June, 2016

June, 2017

June, 2018

June, 2019

Annual Revenue

 

59,122,253

76,119,900

98,955,871

117,594,161

129,353,577

Cost as % of Revenue

 

60%

50%

50%

50%

50%

Actual Costs

 

35,473,352

38,059,950

49,477,935

58,797,080

64,676,788

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Profit (Revenue - Actual Costs)

 

23,648,901

38,059,950

49,477,935

58,797,080

64,676,788

 Applying Capital Budget Evaluation Techniques

 The  evaluation techniques related to the capital budgeting are generally applicable in evaluating the financial viability of an investment proposed in the form of Net Present Value (NPV) and the Internal Rate Return (IRR).

The discount is provided by the NPV to the estimates of benefits accrued in the future from the capital investment proposed to their present equivalent with the usage of the formula X/(1+r)n. Here, the X represents cash flow for the year n, r is the minimum rate of return required that is meant to be Weighted Average Cost of Capital, n is year representing the expected benefit and 1 represents a constant. The not discounted initial investment is subtracted from the present value of all expected benefits. The difference that comes out, if found positive, the project is approved and otherwise rejected (Berges 2011). The case of this paper, the annual net income is represented by the expected future financial benefits with the residue value of $A 200,000 in the year 5 that can be translated to  VD 4,026,000 that has been used with year 5 exchange rate.

Using the formula X/(1+r)n and being discounted, the present value representing the annual revenues of VD 21,499,001, 31,454,504, 37,173,505, 40,159,197 and 40,159,197 for years 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. The sum of all future benefits of the present value is  VD 172,945,234.

Calculating Present Values of all Future Annual Profits

End of Year

 

1

2

3

4

5

Annual Revenue

 

59,122,253

76,119,900

98,955,871

117,594,161

129,353,577

Cost as % of Revenue

 

60%

50%

50%

50%

50%

Actual Costs

 

35,473,352

38,059,950

49,477,935

58,797,080

64,676,788

Annual Net Income (Revenue - Actual Costs)

 

23,648,901

38,059,950

49,477,935

58,797,080

64,676,788

Present Values of Annual Net Income (10% yr n)

 

21,499,001

31,454,504

37,173,505

40,159,197

40,159,197

Total Present Values of Net Income

 

 

 

 

 

170445405

Total Net Present Values of total future benefits = 172,945,234.

The table above shows the initial capital outlay required is VD 197,400,000. The current exchange rate of 19.74 has to be deducted from this value. The resultant figure comes out to be negative 24,454,766. This implies that the project is not viable to make profits and TNA should refrain from acquiring the Vietnamese company.

Calculating Net Present Value at a Price of $A 10,000,000

Total Present Values of Net Income

 

 

170,445,405

Residual Value in Viet Dong. (200,000*20.13)

 

4,026,000

 

Present Value of Residual Value (10% yr 5)

 

 

2,499,829

Total Present Value of of Total Future Benefits

 

 

172,945,234

Initial Investment in Viet Dong (10m*19.74)

 

 

197,400,000

NET PRESENT VALUE

 

 

(24,454,766)

The table below shows the reduction of price to $A 7,000,000 that can be calculated in VD as 138,180, 000 by the current exchange rate. Thus, the NPV becomes VD 172,945,234 minus 138,180,000. A positive figure is obtained at 34,765,234 that implies a positive NPV meaning the TNA should be acquiring the company.

Calculating Net Present Value at a Price of $A 7,000,000

At a price of a $7,000,000

 

 

Total Present Value of Total Future Benefits

 

172,945,234

Initial Investment in Viet Dong (7m*19.74)

 

138,180,000

NET PRESENT VALUE

 

34,765,234

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

The IRR indicates the discounting rate discounting future cash flows that are largely equivalent to the capital outlay, fixed initially and therefore equate the NPV to zero. The decision criteria uses the IIR to compare it with the required rate of return. In this paper the project is rejected if the Weighted Average Cost of Capital is less. In the same way, the project is approved if it is greater (Graham & Smart 2011). In this paper and the case that is analyzed, the rate of return is benchmarked with Weighted Average Cost of Capital of 10%. This figure must be exceeded by the rate of return from any investment to be considered as a viable project. The trial and error are practiced that found the discount rate, reducing the NPV negligibly with a value of 16 that is found to be 5.7178%. Therefore, the IRR is about 5.7178%, being lower than 10%.  

Calculating Internal Rate of Return at a Price of $A 10,000,000

AT A PRICE OF $A 10,000,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

End of Year

 

1

2

3

4

5

Annual Net Income (Revenue - Actual Costs)

 

23,648,901

38,059,950

49,477,935

58,797,080

64,676,788

Residual Value

 

 

 

 

 

4,026,000

Total

 

23,648,902

38,059,952

49,477,938

58,797,084

68,702,793

Present Value (Discounted at 5.7178% yr n)

 

22,369,839

34,054,304

41,876,198

47,072,073

52,027,602

 

 

 

Total present values

 

197,400,016

 

 

 

 

Initial Outlay

 

197,400,000

 

 

 

 

NPV

 

16

 

 

 

 

Therefore

 

IRR = 5.7178%

 

The proposed investment of $A 10 million must be rejected. However, if the investment is curtailed to $A 7 million that is equal to VD 138,180,000 at the current exchange rate, the NPV is reduced by the discounting rate negligibly with a value of 17 is 17.91009%. Thus the approximate IRR is shown in the table below. The IRR, at this price, is greater than the WACC of 10%. Therefore, TNA should accept the project with the Vietnamese company.

Calculating Internal Rate of Return at a Price of $A 7,000,000

AT A PRICE OF $A 7,000,00

 

 

 

 

 

 

End of Year

 

1

2

3

4

5

Annual Net Income (Revenue - Actual Costs)

 

23,648,901

38,059,950

49,477,935

58,797,080

64,676,788

Residual Value

 

 

 

 

 

4,026,000

Total

 

23,648,902

38,059,952

49,477,938

58,797,084

68,702,793

Present Values (17.91009% yr n)

 

20,056,725

27,375,767

30,182,741

30,419,489

30,145,295

 

 

 

Total Present Value

 

138,180,017

 

 

 

 

Initial Outlay (A$ 7m*19.74)

 

138,180,000

 

 

 

 

NPV

 

17

 

 

 

 

Therefore

 

IRR = 17.91009

 

Conclusion

There is a range of sources of funds that TNA can tap in generating funds to acquire the Vietnamese company. The TNA should be looking for the debt that it holds and provide restrictions on equity shares. It can tap the financial institutions in terms of debt instruments, such as bonds or offering new shares to the public. The TNA should reject the proposal of purchasing the Vietnamese company with an investment of $A 10 million. However, it is likely that TNA will make profits if it acquires with an investment of $A 7 million.

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